By Sunny Onuesoke
With the elections a few hours away, the coast appears clear for Senator Alfred Ifeanyi Okowa of the PDP to breast the tape in pole position and emerge winner of the Delta state gubernatorial elections.
This is coming on the heels of the protracted discord between the two main rivals to the PDP candidate, Chief Great Ogboru of the Labour Party (LP) and Chief O’tega Omerhor of the All Progressive Congress (APC).
Both candidates, who rely on the over 900,000 Urhobo votes to make a meaningful impact in the elections have failed to agree on a consensus candidate, for one to step down for the other. They continue to lock horns, with none agreeing to shift any ground, which ostensibly typifies the divisions and factions within the Urhobo Progress Union (UPU) which has been nursing both candidates.
The Uvwiamuge Declaration of the UPU has created more divisions in the rank and file of the 24 nations in Urhoboland, as the UPU’s major faction led by Chief Omene prefers to align with Great Ogboru at the expense of another great Urhobo son, O’tega Emerhor.
All this divisions now seem to work in favour of the PDP candidate, Dr. Okowa who now appears to enjoy a sizeable measure of support in Delta Central than the two Urhobo candidates put together. And this can be attributed to many factors.
First, Senator Okowa has campaigned more in Urhoboland than any other candidates, and he also has massive and robust structures to guarantee him success in Delta Central.
It will be recalled that Dr. Okowa kicked off his campaign trail in Urhoboland to underscore the importance of the Urhobo support towards the realization of his gubernatorial ambitions.
He also engaged many Urhobo interests groups to garner their support, while convincing them that an Okowa government will not only benefit the Urhobos more – on the strength of their huge population – but also position them for greater roles in government.
Furthermore, the fact that the state is predominantly a PDP state, where the major ethnic groups are traditional and founding members of the party, also bolsters a smooth sail for Senator Okowa.
In the last Presidential elections, this scenario played out as the PDP polled about 96% of the votes cast in the state, leaving the APC with a little over 3.8%. There were 2,044,372 registered voters during the exercise, with the number of accredited voters peaking at 1,350,914.
Although the calculations for the governorship elections may be slightly different, given the ethnic eccentricities that will be at play, the PDP will still record a resounding victory.
The ethnic calculations in the state is such that Delta North, where Okowa hails from, comprises the Ukwuani, Enuani-Igbos, and Ika and are collectively referred to as Anioma people.
The second group comprises Urhobo, Isoko, Itsekiri, and Ezon ethnic groups.
The Urhobo people spread into Delta Central while the Isoko, Itsekiri and Ijaw people are grouped into Delta South for political expediency.
Here is how the April 11 gubernatorial elections will pane out, zone by zone.
DELTA NORTH
This zone comprises nine local government councils with a population of over 1.2million.The LGAs are Aniocha North, Aniocha South, Ika North East, Ika South, Ndokwa East, Ndokwa West, Oshimili North, Oshimili South, and Ukwuani.
The number of registered voters is not expected to be more than 500,000. But we expect no fewer than 350,000 accredited voters from this zone in the gubernatorial elections. Since the PDP gubernatorial candidate hails from this zone, it is certain that party will record more than 80% of the votes here, securing a landslide victory.
But we cannot discountenance the influence of the LP candidate whose mother also hails from Delta North or the APC whose deputy-governorship candidate is also from this zone. Therefore, we expect both parties to slice off a little chunk from pie even though this effort may appear not more than an antelope pulling an elephant’s legs!
PREDICTIONS: PDP 85% LP 10% APC 5
DELTA SOUTH
This is one hot-bed of real political activities. The zone comprises 8 LGAs namely Bomadi, Burutu, Patani, Isoko North, Isoko South, Warri North, Warri South, Warri South West.
It also comprises four ethnic groups namely Urhobos in parts of Warri South, Itsekiris in parts of Warri South, Warri North and Warri South West, Ijaws in parts of Warri North and Warri South West and the Isokos in Isoko North and Isoko South.
And this zone too has a preponderance of voters, especially in the cosmopolitan Warri town. The population here is estimated at 1.4m, and the number of accredited voters expected from this zone is around 450,000.
The Ijaws are expected to mobilize and vote for PDP because Okowa’s running mate, Kingsley Otuaro is an Ijaw.
The Itsekiris are expected to vote for the PDP but recent reports indicated that a youth leader in Itsekiri land who wields a cult influence among his people is mobilizing for the APC. But with the Uduaghan influence in the PDP, it is very unlikely that the PDP will lose ground among Itsekiris.
The Isokos who occupy two local government areas have traditionally voted along with their Urhobo kinsmen, more so as the whole of Isokoland was formerly Eastern Urhobo. But since the Urhobos are torn among three candidates namely Okowa, Ogboru and O’tega, it is likely the Isokos will go their own way and support the candidate that appears to best represent their interests. And Okowa has campaigned more and done more to convince the Isoko people to support his candidature.
Finally, and crucially too, the massive votes expected to come from Warri town will be a deciding factor. The town will split their votes, and it is certain the PDP with their enormous structure and follow ship in the town will easily carry the day.
PREDICTIONS: PDP 75% LP 15% APC 10
DELTA CENTRAL
This is the most populated zone in the state, and contains the Urhobo people who are the fifth largest ethnic group in the country after the Hausa-Fulani, Yoruba, Ibo and Ijaw people. The estimated population of the Urhobos is 2.5million. However, the Urhobos are also very scattered and dispersed with over 30% of this number domiciled outside Urhoboland.
For their sheer size, they however occupy a disproportionate 8 LGAs comprising Ethiope East, Ethiope West, Okpe, Sapele, Uvwie, Udu, Ughelli North and Ughelli South.
The number of accredited voters in this zone is expected to move up to 600,000 during the gubernatorial elections, given the interests this election has elicited among the people.
The voting pattern will also be different from local government to local government, depending on the interplay of forces prior to the elections. These forces centre on whether the Urhobos will jettison their party, The PDP and vote for either APC or LP.
In 2011 elections, it was a straight fight between the LP and PDP. Now, the APC has come into the equation, and this will significantly downgrade the electoral fortunes of LP in Urhoboland.
In Ethiope West for instance, the Ibori factor invigorates strongly and will favour the PDP candidate, Senator Okowa in spite of the efforts of Chief Omene of the UPU to swing votes in favour of his chosen candidate, Great Ogboru. But Ogboru is expected to do well in Ethiope East but the PDP is also very entrenched here and can pull up to 35% of votes here.
Ughelli North and South will also be a key battle ground, as the LP and APC will do great battle with the PDP. Again, because the PDP is very strong in these areas, it will be able to get as much as 40% of the votes here.
The PDP will do better in Sapele and Okpe LGAs as the party campaigned aggressively in these areas. The PDP will also do well in Uvwie even though the LP candidate has good followership here.
Finally, the PDP will dominate heavily in Udu LG, as the party has good structures and a lot of foot soldiers doing house to house campaign, and mobilizing strongly for the party and its candidates.
PREDICTIONS: PDP 45% LP 40% APC 15
FINAL ANALYSIS
Senator Okowa of the PDP will emerge victorious in the Delta State Gubernatorial elections by scoring majority votes, apart from securing more than 25% in all the LGAs in the state.
PREDICTIONS: PDP 68% LP 22% APC 10.
Chief Onuesoke, former Delta State Governorship candidate is the Country Director of Network for Good Governance, Nigeria’s largest online media network.