There has been a lot of media hype and frenzy lately, with people peddling very biased and incorrect analyses of the political calculations, and seemingly feeding the reading public with wrong, ignorant and perverse submissions.
For instance, one of the analyses which came in form of a banner headline in one of the South West newspapers indicated that the APC presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari was ahead on opinion polls in Delta State!
Of course, this is a pitiable lie!
Beyond partisan affinity, there have been very exhaustive research, observations and analyses carried out by a team of informed political pundits and their submissions are filtered here. The permutations involve which party will most likely carry the day in the presidential elections scheduled for March 28th 2015, and the analyses are done on state by state basis in no particular order.
JIGAWA
Governor Sule Lamido has done enough to ensure President Jonathan has a good showing even though Buhari did well here in 2007 and 2011. Buhari has traditional followership and support, and this won’t be obliterated now by any form, action or imagination. While the PDP will sweep the gubernatorial elections, the best it could do in the presidential elections is to narrow the hitherto wide lead Buhari has always enjoyed under the ANPP/CPC ticket. The popularity GEJ has enjoyed in the North in the last four years can be traced, among other things, to the advancement of education in the North through the establishment of the 150 Almajiri schools and nine Federal Universities. Therefore, the calculation in Jigawa is that it is going to be a close fight between the PDP and the APC on March 28.
Verdict: PDP 48% APC 52%
YOBE
Even with all the efforts of former Governor Bukar Ibrahim to steer the state on the course of the APC, the PDP has shown tremendous will and drive. This has got Governor Ibrahim Gaidam of the APC both confused and restless, and running from pillar to post for all manner of support. Although the APC controls two senatorial districts, the inability of the governor to address the security challenges of the state in spite of the huge security votes collected monthly from the federation account, is a big minus. The PDP governorship candidate, Adamu Maina Waziri is very popular in the state, and coupled with the advice of former CSO Major Major Al-Mustapha who remains in the sideline, the PDP sure looks set to win the 2015 elections in the state.
Verdict: PDP 60% APC 40%
BORNO
This state has come under intense focus because of the kidnap of the Chibok girls which painfully has remained a sore point in our nation’s polity. If the Boko Haram onslaught against the people of the North East was a political ploy, it may have failed drastically because in the aftermath of the kidnap and killings, more questions are being asked about the competence of the state government, not the least for allowing the conduct of the WAEC exams against the advice of the federal government. Was this a deliberate plot? Meanwhile, President Jonathan has shown stronger prowess in recent times by clearing out the Boko Haram insurgents and dislodging their bases and hold on the state. The relic of Boko Haram is what is left in the state now, as well as those of Governor Kashim Shettima. Also former Governor Modu Ali-Sheriff is deeply on ground to ensure the PDP wins the state. Despite the recent court judgment that replaced Alhaji Mohammed Imam with his arch-rival, Gambo Lawan, the PDP will still work hard to take absolute control of the state. Already the opposition is crying wolf with the presence of government soldiers all over the state, and the APC is insinuating the soldiers will work for the victory of their Commander-in-Chief on March 28.
Verdict: PDP 65% APC 35%
GOMBE STATE
This is one state the PDP will win comfortably. Not just because the state is controlled by the PDP but because of the dismantling of the structures of ex-Governor Danjuma Goje whose political base is now in comatose and incapable of any mischief. Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo has remained firmly on the ground, and piloted the state very well to guarantee an easy victory for the PDP in all the elections.
Verdict: PDP 80% APC 20%
PLATEAU
The politics of Plateau State has played out with an interesting background sound: power shift. Senator Gyang Pwajok from Plateau North of the PDP wants to succeed Jonah Jang, also from Plateau North. But the APC cashed in on the tribal divide in the state and accentuated it to the fullest by picking a candidate from Plateau South, Hon Simon Lalong as its gubernatorial candidate. Meanwhile of the 17 LG councils in the state, the North has six, South six, and Central five. To balance the equation, both parties have picked their deputy governorship candidates from the Central! But the PDP still commands a good advantage as the North is heavily populated, and could guarantee more than 45% of the votes while the Central will almost always go along with the North. Meanwhile, the PDP also has good structures in the South to guarantee absolute victory on March 28.
Verdict: PDP 70% APC 30%
NASARAWA
There have been a lot of political intrigues in Nasarawa state lately. First it was the impeachment saga against Governor Tanko Al-Makura which was not only unsuccessful but emboldened the governor against his adversaries, mainly from the PDP. The fact that the APC has only four members in the state’s assembly while the PDP has 20 attests to the strong grassroots positioning of the PDP in the state. Governor Al-Makura himself was a founding member of the PDP in the state, and only defected to the then CPC when he failed to get the governorship ticket in the 2011 elections. He subsequently defeated the incumbent Governor, Aliyu Akwe-Doma to emerge Governor. While the PDP machinery is still strong in the state, the activities of ex-Minister Labaran Maku who failed to grab the PDP governorship ticket in the primaries are also very worrying and disturbing. Although Maku has since defected to APGA, the strength of the PDP has been weakened and depleted by this move. But the PDP is still very rooted in the state, and will surely have the upper hand in the coming elections especially as APGA will also vote for the president.
Verdict: PDP 65% APC 35%
ADAMAWA:
Adamawa is a traditional PDP state, and even though there are recent infractions due to the choice of Nuhu Ribadu to carry the party’s flag at the governorship elections, many wounds may have been healed especially with the recent visit of President Jonathan to the state. The President also seized the opportunity to visit former VP, Atiku Abubakar who has his eyes fixated on 2019, having lost the APC ticket to Tinubu’s political chess game. Atiku himself is smart and knows very well that Buhari’s triumph will put paid to his presidential hopes in the next 8 years and beyond. But Jonathan’s triumph will leave the door wide-open for a Northern candidate like Atiku in 2019, with Buhari being too old and weary to contest afterward. In other news, the PDM and APC guber candidates Dr Ahmed Mohammed Modibbo and Senator Muhammadu Umar Jibrilla respectively do not have the requisite structuresto upset the tap roots of the PDP in the state. Therefore, the PDP will triumph in the next elections.
Verdict: PDP 75% APC 25%
TARABA
This is another PDP state where the opposition will barely have any breath of air. Acting Governor Alhaji Abubakar Danladi is doing well and very focused on his senatorial campaign. The PDP gubernatorial candidate, Mr Darius Ishaku is also working hard to ensure his party comes out victorious in the forthcoming elections. Also, the traditional support from strong allies like General Theophilus Danjuma has given Jonathan an absolute edge over his closest rival, Buhari who does not seem to have any foothold in the state. I don’t know why the APC had to chicken out very early. Its governorship candidate Sen. Aishatu Alhassan (Sai Mama) exists only to only fill the blank space while Buhari is very unpopular here.
Verdict: PDP 85% APC 15%
BENUE
In spite of the defection of former PDP chairman Barnabas Gemade and ex-Minister under GEJ administration Samuel Ortom to the APC, the rank and file of the PDP is still as strong as ever. Governor Gabriel Suswam is not taking chances and campaigning vigorously for his party and its candidates. The fact that the PDP candidate Terhemen Tarzor is also Tiv just like Ortom will ensure the Tiv votes are divided between the PDP and APC. Ortom who lost out in the PDP governorship primaries came through the back door in the eleventh hour and ‘stole’ the APC ticket, leaving loyal and long-standing members of the party bruised, bewildered and bitter. Again, Benue state has too dominant tribes, Tiv and Idoma. While the Tiv terrain is comme ci comme ca, the Idoma area is assured and secured for the PDP with Senate President David Mark commanding from the front. The PDP will record a landslide victory in the state as it has always done.
Verdict: PDP 80% APC 20%
BAUCHI
Recently Bauchi opposition politicians came under severe criticism for orchestrating the stoning of the President and Commander-In-Chief by a small minority of party supporters who are all APC. That clearly underlined the desperation and frustration of the opposition in the state. The PDP chairman Adamu Muazu who hails from the state knows very well the importance of securing his state for his party. Working assiduously with the incumbent Governor Isa Yuguda and FCT Minister Bala Mohammed, the trio which includes Adamu Muazu have ensued the opposition APC have their backs to the wall. Bauchi has been a good hunting ground for Buhari for the past 12 years but the GEJ factor is very strong now, and a neck-to-neck race is predicted for both parties in the March 28 polls.
Verdict: PDP 48% APC 52%
KANO
Kano has been very favourable to Buhari, and the retired General is revered here. Also, the strong influence of the current Governor Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso who defected from the PDP to the APC is a major advantage for the APC. Recall that the APC swept all the LG seats in the last elections. Again, the current Emir of Kano, Mallam Sanisu Lamido Sanusi who fell out with the Jonathan government has been known to work covertly for the opposition, and his influence on the Kano electorates is a major bonus for the APC. But the PDP knows how the pendulum is swinging and has been working hard in recent weeks to alter the movement in its favour. Vice-President Namadi Sambo has been campaigning vigorously; same goes for Minister of Education Ibrahim Shekarau who is also working to ensure Jonathan takes up a significant slice of the rich Kano pie.
Verdict: PDP 25% APC 75%
KADUNA
Kaduna is the territory of the VP, and being a former governor here makes the odds work in his favour and that of his party. Just like every political space where actors crystallise, Kaduna has remained a hot-bed of political horse trading and the recent developments are not only intriguing but very pulsating and gripping. It is fast playing into a movie, as the plots are being carefully scripted and rehearsed. The APC is strong in Kaduna Central but weak in the North and South where the PDP dominates. Governor Mukhtar Ramalan Yero is head-on in fisticuff with APC’s El Rufai, the latter enjoying the media camouflage of the APC machinery to the fullest. El Rufai has been following the Buhari campaign train, with little time to focus on his own battles back home in Kaduna. The last time they did a rally, the PDP accused El Rufai and his APC cohorts of renting crowd for Buhari, and even allowing under-aged to be part of the crowd. Meanwhile, El Rufai has been making bogus promises like free education at all levels, building of dams and other infrastructure to which the state does not have the capacity to fund. And on each occasion, the incumbent PDP government in the state has derided him and his party. Being the VP’s terrain, Kaduna State will be retained by the PDP both in the presidential and gubernatorial elections.
Verdict: PDP 60% APC 40%
KATSINA
This is the home state of the APC presidential candidate, Gen Buhari. Ordinarily, a landslide victory should be expected but this is not likely to play out this way. This is because the PDP has taken the battle to every nook and cranny of the state, and exploited every crevice of opportunity, from Funtua to Katsina. Again the fact that the PDP controls the state means it has a strong grassroots presence. Governor Ibrahim Shehu Sherma will want to ensure the Yar’Adua legacy lives on in the state by pushing the boundaries for Jonathan in the coming polls, just as his APC counterpart Alhaji Aminu Masari is testing the waters for the impending political battles in the state.
Verdict: PDP 35% APC 65%
NIGER
Governor Aliyu Babangida is one of two governors that declined to pitch tent with the APC in the eleventh hour of defection. He has remained a very strong party stalwart afterwards even though his erstwhile deputy, Musa Ibeto defected to the rival APC. But the PDP suffered some set back recently when they lost the Niger East Senatorial District bye-elections to the APC. Beyond that, the PDP still remains the party to beat in the state and President Jonathan will once again triumph in Niger State. Also, former Military President, General Ibrahim Babangida is a known admirer and supporter of Goodluck Jonathan and his covert support is also very crucial to the Jonathan campaign at this point in time. .
Verdict: PDP 55% APC 45%
SOKOTO
The politics of Sokoto State is fraught with suspense and drama, not the least by the lead characters and protagonists in the fray who have not only redefined political chess board but have given new insights into how permutation and alignments are achieved. Governor Aliyu Wamakko is the character behind all the calculations, having been in the corridors of power since 1999, first as deputy governor under ANPP before defecting to the PDP in 2007 and subsequently grabbing the governorship ticket to upset his boss, Attahiru Bafarawa. Governor Wamakko was later to defect to the APC in 2013 together with four other Governors. However, his deputy, Alhaji Mukhtari Shagari, son of former President Shehu Shagari remained steadfast in the PDP, and today he is the party leader in the state. But it must be said that the Wamakko machinery is so strong and powerful that the APC in Sokoto State today has been radically transformed into a colossus. Therefore, the state will be a difficult terrain for President Jonathan while Buhari will just have a stroll through the promenade into a paradise he never worked for or knew anything about.
Verdict: PDP 35% APC 65%
ZAMFARA
This is a strong fortress for the APC who inherited the ANPP machinery. Former Governor and Sharia zealot, Sani Yerima still possesses that political virility as with under-aged brides. And it is this strength that has kept him on, allowing him to clone a political robot in the form of Governor Abdulaziz Yari. The PDP still remains the biggest opposition party here, and the poor performance of the APC government in the state in the last few years has given renewed hopes for a PDP incursion. But the vast majority of the electorates here is still blinded by the Yerima myopia, and can hardly see beyond this leader. The good news for the PDP is that the Minister of Defence, Gen Aliyu Gusau is from Zamfara State and his involvement will help to rally some votes for President Jonathan.
Verdict: PDP 30% APC 70%
KEBBI
Kebbi State has not been spared of the implosion that happened within the PDP, leading to mass defection to the opposition APC. Even though Kebbi is a PDP-controlled state, there are strong indications that the opposition has fitted perfectly into the North West bandwagon that is sweeping across the zone like a tornado. Out-going Governor Saidu Dankingari who did not manage his succession plan very well created a vacuum such that former Kebbi Governor and ex-FCT Minister Adamu Aliero had to decamp to the rival APC together with his supporters, one of who is Alhaji Atiku Bagudu. Bagudu himself could not secure the PDP ticket because of his tainted past. It will be recalled that as scion of a very wealthy father, Bagudu was a family friend of the late maximum ruler, General Sani Abacha. He was involved in a deal with the Nigerian government to return $300 million stolen money. In exchange, government dropped all criminal charges against him. Today, Bagudu is the APC governorship candidate in the state. Meanwhile the ambition of the state PDP chairman Alhaji Mansiru Sheahu who was scheming to run as Governor also helped to tear the party apart until the PDP finally chose former General Officer Commanding (GOC) of the Nigerian Army, General Sarkin Yarki Bello, as its governorship candidate. But the PDP is expected to do well in the Presidential elections in spite of the fracas in the party.
Verdict: PDP 45% APC 55%
FCT
The power of incumbency will always play out in favour of the PDP in Abuja. The PDP has solid structures in the FCT. These structures are impenetrable. The six area councils in Abuja will almost always go with the ruling party by default. But to put it in a better context, Goodluck Jonathan has transformed Abuja greatly with indefatigable zeal as the city continues to expand in infrastructure and general development. The APC has also tried to make some inroads here too, with Professor Osinbajo leading the campaign trail recently in Abuja. But given the close affinity the ruling party has with the traditional people of Abuja, it is unlikely a Buhari tsunami can ever happen here.
Verdict: PDP 70% APC 30%
KOGI
Like many states where candidates are jostling for electoral positions, Kogi state has its own share of the problem of defection. Therefore, many politicians who could not secure the PDP nominations had to defect to the rival alternative platform, the APC to realize their ambitions. The governorship elections will not hold this year; hence all attention is shifted to the presidential and legislative elections. There have been many defections from Kogi East and Kogi Central lately to the APC but this has not stopped the PDP from repositioning itself and going to the grassroots for votes. Even incumbent Governor Idris Wada has had to rally the party stalwarts together to ensure the party does not lose any ground to the rival APC. During his campaign tour of the state, the APC presidential General Buhari told the people that he would revive the moribund Ajaokuta Steel Company and open up the state to rapid infrastructural developments. But all said and done, the PDP is deeply rooted across all the senatorial zones in the state. Senator Smart Adeyemi, for instance, is doing a yeoman’s job in his Kogi West, mobilizing strongly for President Jonathan. The President will also have a strong showing in Igbira land as well as Igala land.
Verdict: PDP 60% APC 40%
LAGOS
This is an APC enclave but the PDP has always won the presidential race in Lagos since 2003. However, the dynamics have since changed, as the king maker of Lagos politics, ex-Governor Bola Tinubu is no longer prepared to play ball with the PDP or betray his party’s flag-bearer Gen Buhari. Therefore the presidential race will be very tough in Lagos. Meanwhile, President Goodluck Jonathan knows the importance of Lagos, and has campaigned in Lagos more than any other state in the country. He also has the support of the OPC as well as many traditional rulers and tribal leaders. Again, the Bode-George PDP in the state has deployed resources in equal measure to the APCs, matching the opposition party billboard for billboard, and money for money. The Fashola-led APC government has had to remove opposition billboards in the state, citing non-compliance to environmental standards as set by its LASEPA. In reaction, the Federal government has had to descend on APC posters and billboards erected on Federal roads. Meanwhile, the postponement of the polls has also enabled Jonathan to close more gaps and gain more grounds in Lagos, even as Governor Fashola continues to appeal to Lagosians to kick out Jonathan. But the appeal to Ndigbo to ignore Fashola after deporting Igbos from their own country is louder. The current momentum suggests it is going to be a close call in the presidential race in Lagos, rather than the one-legged horse race predicted for the APC three months ago. Jim Agbaje of the PDP is very articulate, urbane and charismatic and has added more verve and value to the Jonathan campaign in the state. The APC’s Ambode continues to rely on Fashola and Tinubu to do his campaigns, banking on the strong APC structure in the state. It is this same structure that Buhari is relying on to win Lagos state.
Verdict: PDP 45% APC 55%
OGUN
The political forces in Ogun are getting more intriguing and intricate by the day. Ever since the APC got back the state from the Gbenga Daniel-led PDP government, some measure of progress has been recorded by Governor Ibikunle Amosun. However, former Governors Segun Osoba who is said to be at war with Amosun has since left the APC and taken with him a good part of the party’s structure scattered in the 236 wards across the state. He is now piloting the SDP which is now another strong opposition party in the state. Recall that Osoba single-handedly erected the structures that brought Amosun to power. Meanwhile, among the major contenders for the governorship seat in Ogun State are the incumbent, Ibikunle Amosun, Gboyega Isiaka of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP and Akin Odunsi of the Social Democratic Party, SDP. Meanwhile, Gbenga Daniel has returned to the PDP just as former President Olusegun Obasanjo resigned from the party. Now, the PDP is getting stronger just as the opposition in Ogun is gathering steam. And so, it is not going to be a walk-over for the APC in the presidential elections, as the PDP and SDP are working together in one accord. Osoba structures will clearly help President Jonathan, and put him at an advantageous position.
Verdict: PDP 40% APC 60%
OSUN
This is one state the PDP will find it difficult to record a good outing, let alone win. First, the fracas in the PDP that led two of its former governors, Isiaka Adeleke and Olagunsoye Oyinlola as well as former House of Reps speaker, Olubunmi Eke to defect to the APC has greatly weakened the structure and status of the party in the state. Again, the state Governor Rauf Aregbesola has always ensured the PDP is defeated in the presidential elections as he did in 2011 when the ACN candidate won. Fresh from his triumph over Senator Omisore, Aregbesola will want to use this presidential election as a statement of his grip on the politics of Osun. He has guaranteed Buhari a landslide victory in the state. But President Jonathan has continued to push the boundaries, with his intense campaigns in Osogbo recently, where a mammoth crowd received him. Clearly, Jonathan has done well to deserve a good outing in Osun, and a landslide victory for his opponent is very unlikely.
Verdict: PDP 35% APC 65%
KWARA
The politics of Kwara cannot be written without a mention of its most charismatic dramatis persona, Senator Bukola Saraki who built on his father’s structure to create his own formidable structure. Once he had a disagreement with his father on who would succeed him as governor, he went his own way, turned his back on his family and got his own anointed candidate to succeed him. That’s how powerful he is in Kwara. However, Bukola would later also turn his back on his party, the PDP by teaming up with Governor Amaechi and three other Governors to decamp to the APC. Today, he is being covertly wooed to come back to the PDP. Nevertheless, the PDP has not allowed this set-back in Kwara to diminish it, as the party trudges and struggles to regain his momentum in the state. President Jonathan has also campaigned with optimism in Kwara, having won previous elections in the state. But this time it will be herculean especially without the usual Saraki support.
Verdict: PDP 45% APC 55%
OYO
Again, an interesting spectre of political wave will play out in Oyo state, and this is underlined greatly by the caliber and charisma of the contestant in the circuit. The presidential elections will also be influenced by the dose of politicians on display at the gubernatorial level. Incumbent Governor Abiola Ajimobi of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is in the fray with Seyi Makinde of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), former Governor Rashidi Ladoja of the Accord Party (AP), former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala of the Labour Party (LP) and former Senate Leader, Teslim Kolawole Folarin of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). While the quartet of Ajumobi, Makinde, Ladoja and Folarin are from Ibadan – and will divide the votes here, Alao-Akala is from Ogbomosho, and will also get votes from northern axis like Shaki, Iseyin and Ejigbo. There is also the Alafin of Oyo factor whose son is vying for the House of Reps under APC. With all these calculations in place, it is sure going to be an interesting battle in the presidential elections. President Jonathan has always done well in Oyo State. Now, it seems Akala is mobilizing for the president, just as Makinde (who was a PDP gubernatorial candidate), Ladoja and Folarin are doing. Therefore, it is Ajumobi (APC) versus the rest to deliver the votes for either Buhari or Jonathan. It is going to be a neck-to-neck battle.
Verdict: PDP 48% APC 52%
EKITI
Ever since Ayo Fayose returned to the PDP and won a second attempt as Governor, the opposition has not had any peace. At a point he even sponsored an obituary advert of the presidential candidate of the APC, General Buhari. He has taken it upon himself to fight the APC machinery and grind it to comatose. The other day he showed the actual hotel room in Abuja where Buhari held a press conference which was earlier passed on as an International press Conference in London. Fayose has proved he is a grassroots politician, and his firm grip on the state has rendered the opposition impotent. At the 2015 elections, Fayose will ensure his party sweeps all the elections including the legislative elections where the opposition currently holds sway.
Verdict: PDP 65% APC 35%
ONDO
Ondo State is a Labour Party state until recently when Governor Olusegun Mimiko defected to the ruling PDP. Also, he took with him to the PDP all his political structures. However, he too suffered some defections as some House of Reps members defected to the rival APC. Analysts agree Mimiko’s coming to the PDP has bolstered and boosted the chances of Goodluck Jonathan in the state. However, where they fail to agree on is the argument that Mimiko’s coming to the PDP will a create problem of control in the party as old, loyal members of the party in the state will resist his dominance. So far, this has not played out visibly, and Mimiko is riding high. In 2011, Mimiko’s Labour Party helped Jonathan to garner almost 86% of votes cast. This time around, the calculations may be a little different especially given the incursions of the APC in the South West but the PDP will dominate the elections in Ondo state for a long time to come.
Verdict: PDP 60% APC 40%
EDO STATE
Governor Adams Oshiomhole has been at the echelon of the APC revival in the state. Ever since the state was liberated from poor-performing leadership, there has been growth in terms infrastructural development and good governance. However, as one of the key South-South states, it is very unlikely that the people will vote against Goodluck Jonathan. Again, Jonathan has indicated he would implement the recommendations of the National Confab which recommended the creation of Osse State out of the present Edo State. Thus, it is plausible that the people of the North and Central who will inherit the new state will vote for Jonathan. The Anenih factor which has ensured the Ishan people of Edo Central remained rooted to the PDP is another plus for Jonathan. The Binis too have always voted for Jonathan, and Adams Oshiomhole cannot persuade them to do the contrary. In 2011, the Jonathan scored a whopping 97% but today the dynamics have changed because of the renewed zest of Oshiomhole to impress the APC hierarchy. Therefore, these efforts will just be enough to ensure Buhari surpasses the minimum threshold of success.
Verdict: PDP 70% APC 30%
DELTA
Just like every other states in the South-South, Delta State is a fortress for the ruling PDP. Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan has remained loyal and committed to President Jonathan and the PDP machinery. Even the divisions and infractions that characterized the last primaries are not sufficient to prevent Jonathan from recording a landslide victory in the state. The Urhobos, who constitute nearly half of Delta State population, have pledged their loyalty to the President and agreed to vote en masse for him. Same with the Ijaw, Itsekiri, Isoko, Ika and Aniocha people. Again, the labour Party which has Great Ogboru as its candidate and harps on aggregating Urhobo votes, has also aligned with the PDP to vote for Goodluck Jonathan. The fact that the APC is not only unpopular but struggles tamely to pinch out crumbs from the stronghold of the PDP and LP makes the calculations resonate better. Therefore, President Jonathan will not only record a landslide victory but also the greatest percentage margin over his closest rival.
Verdict: PDP 98% APC 2%
BAYELSA
This is the President’s home state, and there are no issues to be resolved unlike in the past when ex-Governor Timipre Silva, now an APC stalwart, was showing some tendencies. The incumbent Governor Seriake Dickson is not only a loyal party man but has rightfully taken the lead to ensure a resounding victory for his party in the coming elections. Also, the opposition exists only on paper. Recently, 25 political parties in Bayelsa endorsed Goodluck Jonathan for re-election. Apart from that, there have been massive defections from the rival APC to the PDP of late, and this has given more impetus to the groundswell of re-election campaigns for the President.
Verdict: PDP 90% APC 10%
RIVERS
Rivers state has contributed greatly to the APC financial machinery, second only to Lagos. The River State Governor Rotimi Amaechi is a benevolent financier of his party, almost to the detriment of his state. The fact that he was one of five governors that defected to the APC from the PDP has not really altered the calculations in Rivers State. Amaechi did what he did because of his personal ambition to be Vice-President under an APC presidency. However, that dream was jolted first by the Tinubu fierce electoral scheming machine which sidelined him, and later deluded him with the grandeur of Director-General of the APC Presidential Campaign. Also, apart from the mass defection the APC in Rivers has suffered lately, Amaechi’s deputy, Deputy-Governor Tele Ikuru just rejoined the PDP, labeling the APC “a party of rebels, insurgents and anarchists, clothed in robes of pretense and deceit”. He is now back to the PDP with his followers. This is a big blow to Governor Amaechi and his party, ahead of the 2015 elections commencing this weekend. Amaechi had overlooked his deputy and installed Hon Dakuku Peterside as the Governorship candidate of the APC to run against Senator Nyesom Wike of the PDP. Now the cookie seems to have crumbled finally, and the PDP will surely have the last laugh in the 2015 elections in Rivers State.
Verdict: PDP 85% APC 15%
AKWA IBOM
When Godswill Akpabio said Goodluck Jonathan need not worry about victory in his state, he never minced words. This is because the governor is one of the few governors who have over-achieved in terms of performance on the job, and therefore highly venerated and respected in the state. The APC has tried to make some incursions by choosing Obong Umana Umana from Uyo to fly its flag but it is almost certain that flag will fly at half mast on Election Day. This is because the APC does not have any foothold in the state. The people of Akwa Ibom State have always voted for the PDP overwhelmingly.
Verdict: PDP 87% APC 13%
CROSS RIVER
This is one state President Jonathan will win easily. He is so loved in Cross River, and well celebrated and respected. His campaigns in the state were like carnivals, and there were so much joy and jubilation that one could almost always smell victory in the air. It is unimaginable that Buhari could garner any votes here, just as in Delta State. The state has remained a PDP strong-hold since 1999, and has always delivered more than 90% votes to the party. Governor Liyel Imoke who succeeded Donald Duke has maintained that legacy of development in the state and now wants Senator Ben Ayade to continue. There is practically no opposition in the state, and the PDP will record a landslide victory again.
Verdict: PDP 92% APC 8%
ABIA
Governor Theodore Orji has shown he is deft and adroit in politics. His mastery of the art has enabled him erect a formidable structure that is by default menacing to the opposition. This is one state where the opposition has remained moribund. Even the recent resurgence of APGA and the PPA is only to campaign for President Goodluck Jonathan. Also, Patience Jonathan whose mother hails from Abia is a regular visitor to the state and the people of Abia adore and celebrate her and her husband. Recall that in 2011, the President recorded 98% victory over his adversaries. On Saturday, he is set to re-enact a similar feat.
Verdict: PDP 95% APC 5%
IMO
The last time the PDP went to Imo State, it was with vengeance and vendetta. There and then the Ibos were reminded of the sordid past of Buhari whom the PDP accused of not only jailing the late Sam Mbakwe, Jim Nwobodo and other Ibo leaders but also killing a lot of Ibos during the civil war. This got many people confused and divided, and the groundswell of opposition to Buhari’s fortunes was revived. Rochas Okorocha, Governor of Imo State under APC could not counter this tirade and he watched helplessly as the APC’s popularity faded away like shooting stars in a dark night. Imo state has always been a good hunting ground for the PDP, but with the APC government in place, Buhari is expected to garner some votes. However, like in any Eastern state, Buhari will find it hard to secure the requisite 25% in Imo state.
Verdict: PDP 80% APC 20%
EBONYI
Ever since Governor Martin Elechi lost his grip on Ebonyi due to the implosion in the PDP and the fight with his deputy and sponsor, Engineer Dave Umahi, things are no longer at ease. However, things have not fallen apart totally, as most cynics insinuate. Elechi himself has been funding the Labor Party; and even though he claims to remain a PDP member, the fact that all his cabinet down to local government chairmen have defected to the LP tells a contrary story. But the efforts of SFG Pius Anyim, former Senate President have ensured that both the LP and PDP stay focused to vote for Goodluck Jonathan and wait for April 11 to test their mettle again in the gubernatorial race. But the APC has remained patient like a vulture waiting to pounce at any opportunity. Dr. Ogbonaya Onu has been galvanizing support for his party but the APC does not seem capable of pulling any surprises especially against the backdrop that in 2011 Jonathan polled almost 96% of the votes then.
Verdict: PDP 85% APC 15%
ENUGU
Enugu has always been a good hunting ground for Jonathan as he scored 98.54% in 2011 while Buhari polled a paltry 0.36%. But the dynamics now have changed. First, the PDP has been greatly divided between the Abuja group led by Senator Ike Ekweremadu and the Enugu group led by Governor Sullivan Chime. Second, the APC has made some tremendous strides and shown real verve and momentum in the execution of its campaigns. The choice of Chief Okey Ezea as its governorship candidate has given the party tremendous boost. But the decision of APGA to adopt the PDP candidates in the presidential and gubernatorial elections, Dr Goodluck Jonathan and Hon Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi as its candidates has further boosted the chances of the PDP in the 2015 elections. Also, the feud between the Abuja and Lagos factions of the party seems to have been amicably resolved in the interim.
Verdict: PDP 90% APC 10%
ANAMBRA
This is another state President Jonathan will win convincingly. So many factors are working in his favour. First, the state is an APGA state which has adopted Jonathan as its Presidential candidate. Second, former Governor Peter Obi is working assiduously for the President. Given the fact Jonathan recorded almost 99% in the 2011 polls in the state, it remains to be seen whether Buhari will be able to reduce this gap through a resurgent APC, led by Chris Ngige. But the recent damage done to the Buhari image by the tough-talking and eloquent Femi Fani-Kayode labeling Buhari as an “Igbo hater” has truly diminished Buhari’s strides in the whole South East, and Anambra is no exception. Jonathan’s profile is high amongst Igbos because he has integrated and elevated them into the main stream of governance in Nigeria. Therefore, Jonathan will record a landslide victory here.
Verdict: PDP 91% APC 9%
CONCLUSION:
The PDP will win popular votes in 25 states plus Abuja and score at least 25% in 36 states plus Abuja to emerge victorious in the March 28th Presidential elections. Goodluck Jonathan will be re-elected president for another 4-year term.
*Chief Onuesoke, former Delta State governorship candidate is the Country Director of Network for Good Governance, Nigeria’s largest online media network.