By Prof. Chiwuike Uba, Ph.D.
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and former largest economy, stands once again at a defining crossroads. The 2023 general elections ushered in Sen. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a man whose political genius, strategic foresight, and organizational mastery have few parallels in Nigeria’s contemporary history. Yet his rise, while extraordinary, also raises a deep question about the nature and future of Nigerian democracy. Will Tinubu’s leadership consolidate Nigeria’s democracy by strengthening institutions, or will it tilt the country toward the dominance of a single political force that thrives on loyalty, patronage, and control? This question defines the soul of Nigeria’s democratic journey as the nation marches toward the 2027 elections.
Tinubu’s ascent to the presidency was no accident of fate. It was the culmination of decades of calculated effort, network-building, and strategic endurance. For over thirty years, he studied the architecture of Nigerian politics, mastered the art of negotiation, and built a loyal following across ethnic, regional, and religious lines. Few Nigerian politicians have displayed such an ability to read the pulse of the political environment, manage allies and adversaries, and recover from setbacks with resilience and precision. In a nation where political survival is often short-lived, President Tinubu’s staying power reflects not only ambition but also extraordinary foresight and adaptability.
His career tells a story of strategy, risk, and reward. From his years as governor of Lagos State between 1999 and 2007, Tinubu demonstrated a level of administrative innovation that changed the trajectory of Lagos. When he assumed office, Lagos was burdened by weak infrastructure, poor fiscal management, and heavy dependence on federal allocations. Tinubu reimagined Lagos as a financial and economic powerhouse. He introduced new models of tax administration, built strong fiscal systems, and established institutions that sustained growth long after he left office. Under his watch and that of his political protégés, Lagos transformed into a global megacity. Its internally generated revenue rose from about ₦15 billion in 1999 to an astounding ₦1.26 trillion by 2024. This transformation was not the result of chance but of consistent policy, strategic investments, and an insistence on efficiency. Lagos became the model that many other states sought to emulate.
However, Tinubu’s influence extended beyond Lagos. He built political alliances that evolved into a formidable national machine. Through the Action Congress, Action Congress of Nigeria, and eventually the All Progressives Congress (APC), he forged coalitions that transcended the old North-South political divide. It was this coalition-building that produced the APC’s historic victory in 2015, ending sixteen years of PDP dominance. Tinubu’s role in bringing together unlikely partners was not only tactical but transformational. He understood the psychology of political actors, rewarding loyalty, managing dissent, and projecting influence even from behind the scenes.
His relationships with past presidents illustrate both his tactical flexibility and his deep understanding of power. He opposed President Obasanjo’s Third Term Agenda with strategic boldness, resisted the marginalization of opposition states, supported Goodluck Jonathan when necessary, and eventually joined forces with Muhammadu Buhari to unseat the PDP in 2015. Tinubu’s political life demonstrates that in Nigeria, survival and success require a careful mix of principle, patience, and pragmatism.
The 2023 election was, in many ways, the climax of Tinubu’s political career. His now-famous declaration, “Emilokan,” which translates as “It is my turn,” became both a slogan and a statement of destiny. It resonated with his base as a call for justice, recognition, and continuity. To others, it symbolized entitlement and political arrogance. Yet, whichever way one interprets it, that phrase captured the confidence of a man who had spent decades preparing for power. It also revealed his unmatched ability to shape public discourse, redefine narratives, and turn what might have been a liability into a rallying cry.
Nonetheless, the genius that brought Tinubu to power also poses a profound democratic dilemma. When a political system revolves too heavily around one individual’s charisma and networks, it risks weakening the very institutions that sustain democracy. Nigeria’s democracy cannot depend solely on the brilliance of a leader. It must rest on institutions strong enough to check power, enforce accountability, and protect the rights of citizens regardless of political affiliation. Tinubu’s presidency, therefore, stands at a delicate intersection between personal power and institutional reform.
While Lagos stands as a beacon of fiscal success and administrative efficiency, the broader Nigerian landscape remains fraught with deep challenges. Inflation continues to erode purchasing power, and the prices of essential goods have soared beyond the reach of ordinary families. Millions remain unemployed or underemployed, while poverty deepens across urban and rural communities alike. Insecurity still stalks the nation, from banditry in the North-West to terrorism in the North-East, and from kidnappings in the Middle Belt to agitation in the South-East. The cost of living crisis, compounded by subsidy removal and currency devaluation, has created a climate of frustration and despair. Many Nigerians today struggle not only to live but to hope.
These hardships have fueled public discontent and skepticism about the APC’s performance since 2015. Despite ambitious reforms and notable infrastructure projects, many citizens feel that the promise of change remains unfulfilled. The paradox is striking: a government that came to power on the mantra of progress now presides over widespread hardship. For Tinubu, this presents both a challenge and an opportunity. His administration must confront these realities with honesty and innovation, translating economic theory into tangible outcomes for ordinary Nigerians.
A more worrying trend in recent years has been the steady drift toward political homogenization. The ruling APC, under Tinubu’s magnetic influence, has attracted a flood of defectors from opposition parties. Governors, legislators, and political heavyweights are crossing over, often citing pragmatism or the need to “work with the government.” In truth, many are motivated by access to patronage and the fear of political irrelevance. While defections are not new in Nigerian politics, their current scale is alarming. It blurs ideological boundaries, weakens political competition, and erodes the essence of multiparty democracy.
If this pattern continues unchecked, Nigeria could find itself inching toward a de facto one-party state—democratic in appearance but authoritarian in practice. In such a system, elections may continue, but their outcomes would become predictable, shaped less by the will of voters and more by the machinery of incumbency. When opposition parties are drained of talent, funding, and morale, democracy loses its vitality. Citizens become disillusioned, and political participation declines. This would be a tragic reversal for a nation that once symbolized Africa’s democratic promise.
History offers cautionary examples. Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party and Mexico’s Institutional Revolutionary Party both enjoyed long periods of dominance through the absorption of rivals, co-optation of elites, and manipulation of state resources. Over time, such dominance led to complacency, corruption, and stagnation. Nigeria must not repeat that history. A true democracy thrives on competition, debate, and diversity of thought. When dissenting voices are silenced or co-opted, governance becomes insular, accountability weakens, and policy innovation declines.
The way forward lies in strengthening institutions, not individuals. The Independent National Electoral Commission must continue to assert its independence, the judiciary must remain fearless, and the media must uphold its watchdog role without intimidation. Civil society organizations, professional bodies, and citizens must hold leaders accountable, not only during elections but throughout the governance cycle. For democracy to endure, it must be lived daily, not celebrated occasionally.
The regional and generational dimensions of Tinubu’s leadership are also crucial. In the South-West, Tinubu is celebrated as a visionary who elevated Yoruba political relevance and demonstrated what focused leadership can achieve. In the North, perceptions vary between cautious optimism and pragmatic alliance. In the South-East and South-South, feelings of exclusion persist, with many citizens yearning for genuine inclusion and equity. Managing these regional dynamics will be critical for Tinubu’s legacy. A leader who unites Nigeria in trust and fairness will be remembered far more generously than one who rules through division or selective inclusion.
Equally important is the youth factor. With more than sixty percent of Nigeria’s population under the age of twenty-five, the future of democracy depends on how effectively this generation is engaged. Today’s youth are connected, outspoken, and impatient with old political games. They are driven by a desire for transparency, accountability, and opportunity. For Tinubu, ignoring this demographic would be perilous. Harnessing their creativity, energy, and optimism could become his administration’s greatest strength. The next generation is not merely waiting to be led; it is ready to lead if given the chance.
Nigeria’s democratic evolution also carries global significance. As Africa’s largest economy and a regional stabilizer, Nigeria’s political health influences the continent’s trajectory. A robust Nigerian democracy will strengthen West Africa’s democratic frontiers and counter the rising tide of coups and authoritarianism. Conversely, a weakened Nigeria will embolden autocrats across the region and undermine the credibility of democratic governance. The world is watching, not merely out of curiosity, but because Nigeria’s success or failure will ripple across Africa and beyond.
The 2027 elections will therefore be more than a political contest; they will be a referendum on the survival of Nigeria’s democracy. They will test the resilience of the country’s institutions, the independence of its judiciary, the courage of its citizens, and the sincerity of its leaders. Tinubu’s political mastery will again be on display, but the real question is whether that mastery will serve democracy or subdue it. Power, after all, is most noble when it strengthens institutions rather than individuals.
Every stakeholder has a role to play. Citizens must resist apathy and hold their leaders accountable. Opposition parties must rebuild on the foundation of ideas and credibility rather than mere ambition. The ruling party must remember that governance is not conquest; it is stewardship. And the international community must support Nigeria’s democratic journey with respect, partnership, and integrity.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s political odyssey is a testament to vision, strategy, and perseverance. Yet the measure of true greatness lies not in the ability to win power but in the wisdom to use it justly. Nigeria stands today at a defining moment. The choices made in the next two years will determine whether the nation rises toward democratic consolidation or slides into political uniformity disguised as stability. Tinubu’s legacy will be shaped not by his victories but by the quality of the democracy he leaves behind.
The world is watching. Nigerians are watching. The question is not whether Tinubu can win again in 2027, but whether Nigeria’s democracy can win with him.
*About the Author:
Prof. Chiwuike Uba, Ph.D. is a Development Economist, Governance and Public Financial Management (PFM) Expert, Chartered Accountant, Tax Practitioner, and Public Policy Analyst. He has over two decades of experience advising governments, international organizations, and civil society on governance reforms, fiscal policy, and institutional development. He writes and speaks passionately on economic transformation, leadership, and nation-building. He can be contacted by email at chiwuike@gmail.com