By Our Reporter
Nigeria’s new economic model under President Bola Tinubu is expected to drive stronger gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 2026 and beyond, according to the Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI).
In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, the policy think tank projected that Nigeria’s economy could grow by as much as 5.5 per cent in 2026—above current forecasts by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
IMPI said the Tinubu administration has introduced a paradigm shift in economic management, moving the country away from its long-standing dependence on crude oil revenues to a policy-driven model that facilitates economic activities.
According to the group, the new approach relies on deliberate government policies, regulations and institutional frameworks aimed at reducing bottlenecks, lowering costs and accelerating economic activities, particularly in trade and investment. It noted that the strategy is designed to improve efficiency, reduce red tape and promote sustainable and inclusive growth.
The think tank also pointed to what it described as a reversal in the IMF’s earlier outlook on Nigeria. It recalled that the IMF has since revised its projection for Nigeria’s 2026 economic growth to 4.4 per cent, describing it as the institution’s highest GDP growth forecast for the country in 17 years.
“This represents a real expression of confidence in the Nigerian economy,” IMPI said, adding that the revised IMF outlook reflects growing international confidence in the country’s economic direction.
Beyond the IMF’s projection, IMPI noted that there is now a broad consensus among local and international economic observers that Nigeria could record growth above four per cent in 2026. It cited the Federal Government’s projection of 4.68 per cent growth, the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s (LCCI) estimate of seven per cent, and the Nigeria Economic Summit Group’s forecast of 5.5 per cent.
Other institutions, including PwC and the World Bank, were also referenced, with PwC projecting 4.3 per cent growth, subject to higher oil prices, while the World Bank revised its earlier estimate from 3.7 per cent to 4.4 per cent.
IMPI said the convergence of these positive forecasts signals the emergence of a new economic paradigm focused on increased production and productivity, improved foreign exchange stability, easing inflation, stronger foreign direct investment inflows and a more efficient regulatory environment anchored on policy-driven economic facilitation.