By Ihechi Enyinnaya
PwC Nigeria has released its Economic Outlook 2026, projecting improved macroeconomic stability and a more predictable operating environment for businesses as the country heads into 2026.
The report notes that Nigeria recorded notable gains in macroeconomic stability in 2025, driven by key monetary and foreign-exchange reforms. According to PwC, inflation has begun to ease, exchange-rate conditions have stabilised, and external reserves have strengthened, creating clearer signals for investors, businesses, and markets.
PwC said the improving stability is already shaping strategic business decisions in 2026, particularly in the areas of investment planning, cost management, funding strategies, and regulatory, tax, and digital priorities.
Commenting on the report, the Country Senior Partner of PwC Nigeria, Sam Abu, said the Outlook provides forward-looking insights into critical macroeconomic indicators and their implications for business leaders.
“Nigeria has achieved improved macroeconomic stability over the past year. The focus now is how that stability is translated into sustainable economic growth, and how businesses position for 2026. For companies, this stability provides a more predictable operating environment for planning, investment, and growth decisions,” Abu said.
The Economic Outlook 2026 identifies seven key issues expected to shape Nigeria’s economic performance in the year ahead. These include monetary policy effectiveness, fiscal sustainability and reform execution, global economic and geopolitical developments, domestic security and social pressures, uneven sectoral growth, constraints on consumer purchasing power, and the expanding influence of the digital economy and artificial intelligence.
PwC Nigeria’s Partner and Chief Economist, Olusegun Zaccheaus, said both global and domestic dynamics will play a decisive role in determining outcomes in 2026.
He noted that global economic growth is projected at about 3.1%, while merchandise trade growth is expected to slow to around 0.5%, making oil prices, capital flows, and foreign inflows critical channels for Nigeria’s growth and foreign-exchange liquidity.
“Domestically, improved monetary effectiveness has reduced volatility and clarified pricing, cost, and funding signals, even as fiscal pressures, security challenges, and weak household purchasing power continue to shape sector outcomes,” Zaccheaus said.
According to the report, economic growth in 2026 is likely to remain concentrated in services and selected capital-intensive sectors, underscoring the need for disciplined capital allocation and careful sector selection by businesses.
Looking ahead, PwC projects Nigeria’s real GDP growth at about 4.3% in 2026, with inflation continuing to moderate gradually and the naira remaining broadly stable. However, fiscal constraints are expected to persist, reinforcing the importance of capital efficiency and strong balance-sheet management.
Against this backdrop, PwC Nigeria advised business leaders to adopt selective investment strategies, strengthen scenario planning for macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks, adapt cost structures for resilience, accelerate digital transformation and responsible AI adoption, and deepen regulatory and tax compliance as reforms move from policy design to execution.