By Dr Jimoh Ibrahim
What is Tinubu’s offence? The failure to use power as trading currency not leaning from Henry VIII of England (1491–1547), who imprisoned and executed those who would not sign his Act of Supremacy establishing the English monarch as head of the Church of England, including even his ‘good friend’ Thomas More Louis XIV of France (1638-1715) who he simply killed! Tinubu, not acting like ‘Catholic monarchs,’ Ferdinand and Isabella of Spain (1479– 1516) expelled 170,000 Jews who refused their order to be ‘baptised.’ The only thing they know is that power is the trading currency.
Bola Tinubu plays soft with power and probably must pay the price. Tinubu, a Neo-liberalist, wanted to look inwardly for a balance of power by creating wealth, prosperity, and security through collaboration and cooperation in a developing country like Nigeria. What an irony of power currency! Bola Tinubu probably finds nothing valuable in the realist assumption of aggressive power in a state of statism. Tinubu believes that Power is a soft drink of Coca-Cola, not even a bear-like Guinness! When he succeeds, he will be long remembered in African history for the incredible legitimacy of governance in contemporary times. If he fails, he will surely learn from the realist who sees power as currency to spend even in peacetime. If you ask a realist why you are acquiring so much power, he will tell you in readiness for statism even when it does not occur! Buhari is a typical example of the powerlessness of power.
All Realists agree that states can only ensure their survival through self-help strategies that allow them to defend themselves and their interests against another state’s aggression. One example commonly cited is the History of the Peloponnesian War, which is widely seen as the first depiction of power politics. (Apologies to Thucydides). If Tinubu had been around 431−404 BC, he would never have moved against Athens, who lost the war to Sparta over who was the hegemon in the Mediterranean War thanks to the plague-ravaged. To Tinubu, power is rooted in collaboration and cooperation for democratic peace and central to his thesis is the creation of an unprecedented era of social well-being. Like John Maynard Keynes, William Graham, and Herbert Spencer, President Tinubu believes that greater economic freedom leads to more significant financial and individual social progress.
Tinubu Power diplomacy left historical lessons of building personal wealth, prestige, and power acquisition a lesson from the great dynastic families of Europe, Tudor, Valois, Bourbon, Hapsburg, Wittlesbach, Hohenzollern, Savoy, Romanov, and so forth. Tinubu’s desire to build a better Nigeria forestalled the conspiracy to plant the seeds of conflicts from the opposition, whose historical trajectory is rooted in the belief in realism as opposed to Tinube’s liberalism class.
Tinube’s re-election as chairman of ECOWAS shows an incredible affiliation with and celebration of liberal democracy. It reflects that liberals do not fight other liberals. If the opposition is genuinely liberalism-inclined, we should be in the same democratic peace, more so than the Enlightenment philosophers are given credit for shaping liberal ideas. Thomas Hobbes and John Locke already explained the role of the leviathan in the space of man’s aggressiveness for power, and the respect for it can only prevent our lives from brutality and shortness. Without respecting or undermining the Leviathan, man’s life will only be “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.”
Moreover, there is nothing to gain in war, revolution, or planting the seed of conflict. The French Revolution of 1789 witnessed increased food prices, creating economic challenges that prolonged the conflicts. While it is not the case that the increase in the cost of bread is the cause of the war, bread shortages trigger the conflict “stroking anger toward the Monarchy” The outbreak of civil war in South Sudan in 2013 killed more than 100 humanitarian workers of the United Nations as the conflict prevented farmers from cultivating land again, leading to over 400 thousand deaths and displacement of four million food sources and homes. Closely to our situation again, the Syrian Conflict of 2011 created a historical record that is not comparable to World War 11. The incredible displacement of over 11 million people led to the largest global refugee crisis. We saw in Syria a military strategy of food starvation used by the government and the insurgents to prolong the internal conflict. This includes the tactical operation of blockage to prevent food supply and other essential items from reaching target areas. Such a crime did not prevent the escalation of the war. Still, it increased the number of killings, particularly among the staff of the United Nations who are working as aids in the humanitarian department.
The Treaty of the Westphalia 1648 provided us with the incredible opportunity for sovereignty, and reflecting from the 400 years of building peace was the evidenced base conflicts, revolutions and seed of disputes in the last 100 years to which Biafra surprisingly is too small to be listed they are Acehnese War (1873–1904), Philippine-American War (1899–1902), South African War (1899–1902) The War of a Thousand (1899–1903), Boxer-Rebellion (1900–01), Moro Wars (1901–13), Russo-Japanese War (1904–05), Pig War (1906–09). Mexican Revolution (1910–20), Italo-Turkish War (1911–12) World War I (1914–18) Baltic War of Liberation (1918–20), Russian Civil War (1918–20) Russo-Polish War (1919–20), Rif War (1921–26), Chaco War (1932–35), Italo-Ethiopian War (1935–36), Spanish Civil War (1936–39), Sino-Japanese War (1937–45), Phony War (1939–40; Russo-Finnish War (1939–40), World War II (1939–45), Greek Civil War (1944–45; 1946–49), Arab-Israeli Wars (1948–49; 1956; 1967; 1973; 1982), Korean War (1950–53), Algerian War (1954–62), Vietnam War (1954–75, Six Day War (1967), War of Attrition (1969–70), Yom Kippur War (1973), Dirty War (1976–83), Afghan War (1978–92), Iran-Iraq War (1980–88), Falkland Island War (1982) Persian Gulf War (1990–91), Bosnian conflict (1992–95), Kosovo conflict (1998–99) and the Syrian civil War. No one can point to any progress to humanity made by the destruction of international peace in those wars. While there is no need to share interminable inquest over past mistakes, some of them have lessons to teach -of never again!
Yes, we are hungry for food now and maybe hungry for knowledge later (don’t laugh), but many policies are not working, such as the new policy of controlling inflation and reducing corruption in ways and means. There is no social security number to monitor palliatives. Food insecurity is emerging as a critical priority for the next seed of conflicts that may underscore the peace of the geocentric community. This is not exclusive to Nigeria. A bottle of water in London last week cost five thousand Naira. Yes, all is not well. But Tinubu met the cash ratio to GDP of 1%! Unemployment of 43% and debt serving ratio of 90% oil revenue to loan. What magic will the neo-liberal perform in the converging economic complexities? Here again, are 11866 Federal Government abandoned projects, with one of them costing 10 billion Dollars and 43 years of building on-site without production -the almighty Ajaokunta. Which country is interested in helping Nigeria with a global debt ratio to GDP of 235%? Britain has a 95% GDP to Debt ratio, and America has a negative -135% debt ratio to GDP. What is sensible at this time is to allow the Neo-Liberalist Bola Tinubu to do his work; otherwise, time will tell.
*Ibrahim, a Senator in Nigeria, holds a British PhD degree in Modern War.