Why Tinubu should not intervene in Niger
By Kolawole Odetola
If Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s newly sworn in Head of State is dumb enough to allow the west lure him into intervening in Niger, his corrupt government will collapse much sooner than many expected. What is going on in Niger is none of Nigeria’s business. The coup there enjoys mass support. You cant ram ‘democracy’ down peoples throats. If a people prefer military rule to civilian rule you cant force them to change their mind at gun point. It is likely Tinubu would fold under western pressure. His well known drug trafficking record in Chicago in the 90’s and his plea bargain then in the US to escape prosecution means the west have their most subservient and pliable Nigerian leader ever in power.
Niger is not Sierra Leone or Liberia or Gambia where the Nigerian army managed semi succesful interventions in years past. Those countries were much smaller and weaker than Niger and had been overrun by vicious armed gangs or in Gambia power had been seized by an unpopular junta. None of these factors apply in Niger The recent coup in Niger clearly enjoys popular support. Niger is also almost twice the size of Nigeria with a population of at least 25 million people. Even in much smaller nations like Sierra Leone and Liberia where most of the population welcomed their presence, the Nigerian army could not control much in those countries beyond the capital
The Nigerian army has struggled to control vast tracts of its own territory, huge swathes which have been surrendered to armed groups. With French support it might be able to take Niamey although that itself is not given considering the mass support for the putsch there. But even if the Nigerian military does take the capital possibly with western air and logistic support, what about the rest of the country, almost twice as large as Nigeria.
Any intervention would be an attempt to secure western interests the same way it was secured in Afghanistan, Libya and Syria -and now Ukraineb without western blood being sacrificed, by the use of local proxies. Tinubu’s weak, corrupt and increasingly unpopular government will not long survive such an intervention. In Mali, Burkina Fasso and now Niger, anti western coups have been staged by the very military officers who France and the United States used to fight its proxy wars against islamic militants, all of whom sprung to life after the same western powers toppled Libyas secular leader, Mohammed Gadafii and unleashed chaos across west Africa.
If Tinubu sends the Nigerian army into Niger to do the dirty work of Paris and Washington, when they return what makes him think that the resentful captains and majors who have seen their men blown up wont turn agsinst him…the way Burkina Fasso’s, Mali’s and Niger’s officers did against their own civilian rulers