By Jide Akintunde
Vice President Professor Yemi Osinbajo and Mr. Bola Ahmed Tinubu are presidential aspirants of the ruling party, APC.
But there is a scenario in which both men may be on the ballot in 2023.
This thread could help you decide for either — or neither — of them for president.
1 Tinubu is unarguably the grandmaster of Nigeria’s whatever-it-takes politics. He has been successful as a lone-ranger as well as a team player.
Osinbajo is arguably Tinubu’s political godson. Ideologically flexible, he can work with a progressive and an ultra-conservative.
Tinubu can easily win the APC presidential primaries in a free – but unfair – contest. But he cannot win the presidential election if it is free & fair.
Osinbajo cannot win the APC ticket in an open contest. But he can win the presidential election – for APC & other sponsors.
Tinubu was Lagos State governor from 1999-2007. Since then, he has been hell-bent on imposing the governor of the state and has had his way.
Osinbajo is an intellectual and a pastor. The combination of these is politically both a moderating influence and an advantage for him.
Tinubu’s quest for the presidency, he says, has to do with his personal ambition.
Osinbajo’s is opportunistic. Had he not been ‘selected’ as VP candidate to Buhari, as a beneficiary of Tinubu’s political calculation in 2015, he may have remained outside of electoral politics.
Tinubu will very likely use his presidency to consolidate power on a national canvass for life and ward off the challenge to his reign in Lagos.
Osinbajo, running on impersonal ambition, and having no personal support structure to win, will likely run a teleguided presidency.
Tinubu’s presidency will not bring serious progress to Nigeria, based on his unattractive personality & underwhelming record in Lagos from 1999 till date.
Osinbajo is more likeable – like GEJ was. But that will not be enough. His capacity is implicit but practically suspect.
Tinubu’s Lagos -if it were a country- would have Africa’s 4th-largest GDP. But Lagos has no central sewage/drainage system; by African standard, it has lowly ranked education, healthcare & transport systems.
Osinbajo ‘presides’ over the economy but he’s not responsible for it.
Tinubu has been in charge of Lagos for 23 years with a chaotic city to show for it.
Osinbajo only had brief periods that he was Ag.President to show he can turn some situations around. But the airports he turned around in his normal schedule have returned to their sorry state.
Tinubu is quintessentially a member of the wily, avaricious and oppressive Nigerian political establishment.
Osinbajo, as Vice President, is a victim of a section of that establishment. In politics, once you are weak, you remain weak — even if in power.
Tinubu risks losing his grip on Lagos by insisting on his presidential ambition. But he is not stupid: instead of losing both, he would opt for Lagos.
Osinbajo can regain his dignity even if he fails to become president. He will be received by the church and in the academia.
Tinubu and Osinbajo are not suitable for president in 2023. To stabilise the country, we need to institute a sense of equity and justice by zoning the presidency to Igbo’s Southeast. There is no stronger prospect for stabilising the country if this zoning is combined with merit.
The first reward for the country, if the presidency is zoned to the Southeast in 2023, must be the best – not second-best – Nigerian president from the region.
So far, Kingsley Moghalu, who happens to come from the Southeast, is the best aspirant for president.
The next instalment of this series on direct comparative analysis of a pair of two aspirants for president in 2023 will feature Rotimi Amaechi and Yahaya Bello.